Tribute to a Crazy One
Oct 6th, 2011 by Jason Bresnehan
http://wwhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrBw2cXWZS8w.youtube.com/watch?v=DrBw2cXWZS8
Four Elements Need to Align
Sep 20th, 2011 by Jason Bresnehan
It is just over a year since The Pursuit of Luck was named as one of Australia’s top 25 business blogs. So it’s a good milestone to publish a summary of what The Pursuit of Luck is about. The book is still coming and I think it will make a great airport book one day.You get lucky when four elements align.
- A random collision of life’s interactions presents an opportunity to you.
- You are prepared to act upon the opportunity that has presented itself.
- Your character is such that you are empowered and willing to act to exploit the opportunity
- Your systems and techniques are such that you can exploit opportunities efficiently while mitigating risk
Therefore, The Pursuit of Luck is about:
- Taking action to interact more with life and forcing more random collisions
- Acting to change your brain, to change the way you think and to change the way you perceive the world so that you can force more random collisions
- Acting so you are prepared to efficiently exploit the opportunities that random collisions throw your way
- Building your character so that you willingly and fearlessly act to exploit opportunities.
- Acting to develop systems and techniques that create efficiency and risk mitigation
Below, I have set out a checklist divided into the five principles of The Pursuit of Luck. Like all good checklists it changes all the time. I add stuff, people write to me with great ideas and I add these too. So please be sure to visit this checklist again.
Principle #1 – Interact More with Life
To create more random collisions and force more opportunities to present themselves
To create more random collisions and force more opportunities to present themselves
- Break your routines
- Get off the beaten track – explore and bounce off new experiences and people
- Do odd stuff
- Hang out with odd people
- Challenge conventional wisdom
- Hang around fringe topics
- Tinker, experiment, practice trial and error – you don’t know what you don’t know. Adopt the Google 20% “own time”
- Be inquisitive and curious
- Don’t play by other people’s rules
- Don’t be afraid of ideas
- Publish and share your ideas and thoughts
- Leverage other peoples thoughts and luck through delegation and decentralization
- Persistently step up to the plate
- Just Ask
- Try Something New for 30 Days (Matt Cutts)
- Advertise your needs
- Patiently chip away at the cracks of “boulder-like” opportunities
- Be Eccentric
- Ignore what competitors are doing, do something that challenges
- Don’t do focus groups, your customers don’t know what they don’t know, do something that challenges
- Avoid excessive positive thinking
- Never ask / survey conventional wisdom sheep. They don’t know what they don’t know and all bleat the same bleat
- Train yourself and others around you in art of adaptability and re-invention
- Re-invent yourself
- Relax, be cool
- Learn in the trenches
- Pursue stretch goals
- Pursue passionately
- Avoid people wearing suits and elitists
- Keep others off balance and spread confusion in your wake
- Have conversations with people not discussions
- Create people “collisions”
- Avoid learning paralysis
- Never justify or rationalize
- Be thoughtful of others and the world around you
- Listen, do lots of listening
- Embrace simplicity
- Read, read, read. Read blogs, books, periodicals, magazines in your domain, sector, business type or career type. Read blogs, books, periodicals, magazines not in your domain, sector, business type or career type
- Train in unrelated fields
- Poke people in the eye – challenge their views, beliefs, routines and processes
- Grab the tiger by the tail – take on uncomfortable and difficult projects
- Pursue uncertainty
- Change your perspective (literally)
- Take sabbaticals and vacations
- Put yourself in underdog situations
- Mix up and vary your working, thinking and brainstorming environment
- Be yourself, develop a unique personal style, develop a narrative of yourself that you can leave up to and feel lucky because feeling lucky attracts luck
- Embrace technology
- Joke about sometimes
- Have a healthy disregard for the impossible
- Be skeptical
- Avoid premature congratulation
- Comprise is for politicians and diplomats only
- Travel
- Embrace irritation. Irritation is the prophet of the Innovation God
- When you look at life’s objects and practices, ask yourself the question “how would this work upside down, or in its opposite form?”
- Study and apply innovations and technology from sectors that are completely different to yours
- Hang around situations with scarce resources, scarcity breeds innovation
- Force random collision innovation by prodding using random objects, words, images, websites and concepts.
- Incremental improvement is admirable, but sometimes you need to leap into the uncertain.
- Listen to your imagination and dreams and embrace other people’s fiction and fantasy.
Principle # 2 – Change Your Brain
To create more random collisions by interacting with life differently
To see more opportunities because you perceive life differently
To create more random collisions by interacting with life differently
To see more opportunities because you perceive life differently
- Adjust your “Think Big Limiter”
- Learn a second language
- Write poetry
- Write a fictional story
- Learn to play an instrument, or a new instrument
- Listen to music, as many genres as you can
- Change your immediate environment
- Develop thought rapport, eg children, elderly, lazy, generation Y, retires, extreme environmentalists, extreme right wingers, socialists, feminists
Principle # 3- Be Prepared
So you can act rapidly when opportunity strikes
So you can act rapidly when opportunity strikes
- Pull weeds
- Have cash on hand
- Do all the boring stuff, and before its due to be done
Principle # 4 – Building Your Character Traits
So you are prepared to take the leap into the unknown of opportunity exploitation
So you are prepared to take the leap into the unknown of opportunity exploitation
- Raise your self-esteem
- Eliminate your fear of embarrassment
- Embrace non-conformity
- Act Boldly
- Trust your instincts
- Enjoy and be proud of failure
- Have a purpose
- Thicken Your Skin
- Develop a “Do Whatever it Takes” attitude
- Believe in Yourself
- Commit
- Never Quit (but know when to quit, see Principle #16)
- Don’t Get Bitter, Get Successful
Principle # 5- Have Systems and Techniques in Place
So that you quickly leap into exploiting the opportunities with “back of the napkin” plans
So that you mitigate risk
So that you quickly leap into exploiting the opportunities with “back of the napkin” plans
So that you mitigate risk
- The $5 calculator
- The back of the napkin business plan
- The two page business plan
- Talk to potential byers, users, friends and enemies (5 minute phone calls)
- Avoid analysis paralysis
- Adopt a “Portfolio Approach”
- Avoid perfection paralysis
- Just Do it
- Complexity is stupid, apply the KISS principle
- Take hedged risks with downside limits
- You can break even all day
- Ask for help
- Collaborate with others
- Leverage experts in their field
- Kill off the living dead
- Know when to quit
- Know when to be a committee of one
Other Stuff You Need to Know about the The Pursuit of Luck Strategy
- The Three Contact States: Misfortune, Limbo & Opportunity
- The Leap-Increment Dichotomy
- The Disorder-System Dichotomy
- The Quit-Know When to Quit Dichotomy
- Your perception of luck
- The 6th “P” of Marketing: Pursuit of Luck?
Contact the author, Business Consultant, Jason Bresnehan
Imagination
Aug 29th, 2011 by Jason Bresnehan
Awakening from a night of surprisingly lucid dreams about aircraft design (why aircrafts I don’t know), I wondered about the the role of imagination, dreams, fiction and fantasy in the pursuit of luck.
Then less than half an hour into reading my daily blog and online news roll I came across a story about how Samsung, in its ongoing patent battle with Apple, has cited a scene from the science fiction classic 2001: A Space Odyssey.
Samsung wrote:
Attached hereto as Exhibit D is a true and correct copy of a still image taken from Stanley Kubrick’s 1968 film “2001: A Space Odyssey.” In a clip from that film lasting about one minute, two astronauts are eating and at the same time using personal tablet computers. The clip can be downloaded online. As with the design claimed by the D’889 Patent, the tablet disclosed in the clip has an overall rectangular shape with a dominant display screen, narrow borders, a predominately flat front surface, a flat back surface (which is evident because the tablets are lying flat on the table’s surface), and a thin form factor.
So basically Samsung is arguing that they did not copy Apple’s iPad rather the prior art from 2001: A Space Odyssey is the real inspiration for all modern touch tablets.
With lawyers arguing that fiction and fantasy is a very real source of inspiration of world changing innovation, then luck hunters should listen to their own imagination and dreams and embrace the fiction and fantasy produced by others.
Now…lets see if I can find a free aerospace airfoil design app for the iPad.
The Committee of One
Aug 29th, 2011 by Jason Bresnehan
My former business partner the late Peter Purtell, an investment banker who traded the first Australian dollar ever, used to be very fond of the sayingA committee is like a dark cul-de-sac where good ideas are lured and beaten to death.
Last week I was reminded of this when I listened to a presentation by bass guitarist legend Brian Ritchie of Violent Femmes fame. Ritchie who now lives in Hobart Tasmania, settled in Tasmania for a quiet life where he could enjoy the serenity of Hobart, be creative and maybe do a tour once and while to make some money.
However, then along came Salamanca Art’s idea for a Hobart based annual contemporary music festival. The idea got some serious legs when David WalshTasmanian gambling multi-millionaire decide to back it. Add to this the support of the State of Tasmania, then led by tragic Violet Femmes fan David Bartlettthe Premier of Tasmania (for US readers “Governor of the State”) and all of sudden it gave birth to MONA FOMA. And they asked Ritchie to be the curator.
If nothing else MONA FOMA’s success is an example of disparate people colliding. An arts collective at the bottom of the world working out of a circa 1812 Port of Hobart warehouse + a multi-millionaire who has made his money with gambling systems who is fascinated with contemporary art and extremely generous + a famous American bass guitarist who is also proficient in shakuhachi Japanese bamboo flute + a Labor Party (for US readers “Democrat Party”) Premier of the State with an IT background.
But there is more. In the presentation Ritchie told us how he said to the MONA FOMA developers/funders that he would agree to be the curator for the festival on the condition he was a committee of one. And he went on to explain how that the experience has been surprisingly creative, but reinforced the idea that the committee of one rule was very effective.
Then today, a former university lecturer who most influenced my thinking and career compared to any other teacher or lecturer I have ever known, Jol Parlsow, has sent me an article from CNN Money called How Apple Works: Inside the World’s biggest startup. In the first two paragraphs of this article it tells a story of Steve Jobs who despite the global perception that he was the leader of “Wonka’s factory, an enigmatic but enchanted place”, that in reality he is a hard-ass committee of one when he wants to be.
(From the article) According to a participant in the meeting, Jobs walked in, clad in his trademark black mock turtleneck and blue jeans, clasped his hands together, and asked a simple question: “Can anyone tell me what MobileMe is supposed to do?” Having received a satisfactory answer, he continued,,
“So why the fuck doesn’t it do that?”
Reading that just shortly after hearing a presentation from Brian Ritchie I just had to do a post called the “Committee of One”. My very respected business partner the late Peter Purtell loved the concept. I always have. So does Brian Ritchie and now it appears the great man himself the founder/Chairman of Apple does as well.
To my regular readers this may be at odds with the concept that the pursuit of luck is about increasing random people collisions, and random collisions with places, things, objects, ideas, concepts, art, nature, fiction and fantasy. But it is not at odds with the Pursuit of Luck. It is a lesson that a successful business person is one who can facilitate and encourage the random collisions that inspire others and lead to innovation and then, at some point, be a committee of one is needed to get the job done.
Attitude, Awareness and Authenticity
Aug 26th, 2011 by Jason Bresnehan
Neil Pasricha’s pathways to “Awesomeness” – Attitude, Awareness and Authenticity could easily be three pathways for the pursuit of luck.
Men Go Mad in Herds
Aug 18th, 2011 by Jason Bresnehan
If you belive that subscribing to the conventional wisodm of the day, group think and herd mentality crushes your ability to innovate and be lucky, then you would be correct.Here is a link to a paper by Professor William Happer’s (Princeton University) - The Truth About Greenhouse Gases.
Here is his conclusion.
I began with a quote from the preface of the first edition of Mackay’s
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, and I
will end with a quote from the preface of the second edition: “Men,
it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in
herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” In our
efforts to conserve the beautiful planet that is our home, we should
not fixate on CO2. We should instead focus on issues like damage to
local landscapes and waterways by strip mining, inadequate cleanup,
hazards to underground miners, the excessive release of real pollutants
such as mercury, other heavy metals, organic carcinogens, etc. Much
of the potential harm from strip mining can be eliminated, for example,
by requirements that the land be restored to a condition that is as least
as good as, and preferably better than, when the mining began. And it
is high time that we assess great expanses of windmills and solar-panels
in the previously unspoiled open spaces of the world with the same
objectiveness that we apply to other human perturbations of nature.
Looking at once beautiful hilltops, now cluttered with windmills, I am
reminded of an exchange between Winston Churchill and a woman
who indignantly said, “Sir, you are drunk.” Churchill responded, “Madam,
you are ugly. In the morning I shall be sober.” The hilltops will be ugly for a
long, long time.
Life is about making decisions and decisions are about trade-offs. We
can choose to promote investment in technology that addresses real
problems and scientific research that will let us cope with real problems
more efficiently. Or we can be caught up in a crusade that seeks to
suppress energy use, economic growth, and the benefits that come from
the creation of wealth for all of mankind.
I began with a quote from the preface of the first edition of Mackay’s Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, and I will end with a quote from the preface of the second edition: “Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” In our efforts to conserve the beautiful planet that is our home, we should not fixate on CO2. We should instead focus on issues like damage to local landscapes and waterways by strip mining, inadequate cleanup, hazards to underground miners, the excessive release of real pollutants such as mercury, other heavy metals, organic carcinogens, etc. Much of the potential harm from strip mining can be eliminated, for example, by requirements that the land be restored to a condition that is as least as good as, and preferably better than, when the mining began. And it is high time that we assess great expanses of windmills and solar-panels in the previously unspoiled open spaces of the world with the same objectiveness that we apply to other human perturbations of nature. Looking at once beautiful hilltops, now cluttered with windmills, I am reminded of an exchange between Winston Churchill and a woman who indignantly said, “Sir, you are drunk.” Churchill responded, “Madam, you are ugly. In the morning I shall be sober.” The hilltops will be ugly for a long, long time.Life is about making decisions and decisions are about trade-offs. We can choose to promote investment in technology that addresses real problems and scientific research that will let us cope with real problems more efficiently. Or we can be caught up in a crusade that seeks to suppress energy use, economic growth, and the benefits that come from the creation of wealth for all of mankind.
Be Long on Long Term Thinking
Aug 15th, 2011 by Jason Bresnehan
Pursuing luck requires more swings of the bat and the more time you spend at the plate the more swings your can make and the more home runs you can hit.This is why short-term thinking has no place in the pursuit of luck. You need to think longer term and hang out in lots of spaces, lots of market, doing lots of different things and over the long term. A swing and a miss, a swing and a miss, boom a home run! Then repeat.
The problem is that the modern world is so obsessed with short term reporting and short-term feedback loops that its hard to find the stamina to get into a long term frame of mind and structure actions around being fortuitous over the longer term.
The media is like an annoying pet parrot ranting, “poly wants a cracker” all day long.
The Dow is down 14 points,…the dollar lost ground against the yen,…the President has been in power for 100 days but he has not done anything about lowering the temperature of the planet.
Our health is ruined by short-term thinking.
Its just one Big Mac and Coke it won’t hurtI will quit tomorrow
People on diets who weigh themselves every day are more likely to quit the diet because muscle mass gain and water retention give them fasle readings and cause disappointment.
The share market is not about investing in stocks anymore based on the EBIT fundamentals of the company and its strategy. The average company’s stock on the listed US exchanges are held for just 2.8 months as high frequency traders like hedge funds set computers in motion to buy and sell high volumes of stocks. 2.8 months!
When the home lending industry forgot that’s it business was taking in a deposit and paying X interest out to deposit holders and then lending that money secured against a home at X+ margin it caused a global financial crisis. This industry did not rally forget is just stopped thinking long term and replaced it with short term thinking associated with making profits by packaging tens of thousands of garbage mortgages into a derivatives and selling these at a commission to stupid investors who succumb to the short term promises of investment banks.
Everyday millions of people post trivial garbage on Facebook and are offended when they do received 45 likes or comments over the breathtaking news that are making spaghetti and meatballs for dinner tonight.
The only way the world will solve its problems of over-population, disease, famine, continual cycles of market bubbles and crashes and finite resources is by thinking long term. The only way you will share in the wealth and satisfaction of solving these problems with disruptive technology and innovation is if you think long term.
This does not mean that you should not have short term goals, but these goals should be an incremental step toward the long term horizon, a horizon you can see but the detail of which will not be obvious until you have arrived.
What the dollar does tomorrow, where the Tokyo index finishes and whether the Governor apologies or not for visiting a strip club is short term and irrelevant nonsense.
You will be better off if you don’t fill your head with it and leave room for some considered thought about how you can make a difference over the long term and then start hanging out around long term plays.
Mistake Highs
Aug 13th, 2011 by Jason Bresnehan
To me, one of the most underrated songs in the last 25 years is “Buses and Trains” by Australian band Bachelor Girl. It’s not only a beautiful song but at its heart is an important pursuit of luck lesson – mistakes are good.Hey Mom
Why didn’t you tell me
Why didn’t you teach me a thing or two
You just let me go
Out into the World
You never thought to share what you knew
Why didn’t you tell me
Why didn’t you teach me a thing or two
You just let me go
Out into the World
You never thought to share what you knew
So I walked under a bus
I got hit by a train
Keep falling in love
Which is kinda the same
I’ve sunk out at sea
Crashed my car, gone insane
And it felt so good
I want to do it again
I got hit by a train
Keep falling in love
Which is kinda the same
I’ve sunk out at sea
Crashed my car, gone insane
And it felt so good
I want to do it again
Hey Mom
Why didn’t you warn me
Coz about boys is something i should have known
They`re like chocolate cake
Like cigarettes
I know they’re bad for me
But I just can’t leave ‘em alone
Why didn’t you warn me
Coz about boys is something i should have known
They`re like chocolate cake
Like cigarettes
I know they’re bad for me
But I just can’t leave ‘em alone
So I walked under a bus
I got hit by a train
Keep falling in love
Which is kinda the same
I’ve sunk out at sea
Crashed my car, gone insane
And it felt so good
I want to do it again
I got hit by a train
Keep falling in love
Which is kinda the same
I’ve sunk out at sea
Crashed my car, gone insane
And it felt so good
I want to do it again
(AND I WALKED)UNDER A BUS
I GOT HIT BY A TRAIN
AND IT FEELT SO GOOD
AND I WANNA DO IT AGAIN
WANNA DO IT AGAIN
*HEY EY IEEY*
(WANNA DO IT)
Oh, felt so good
I GOT HIT BY A TRAIN
AND IT FEELT SO GOOD
AND I WANNA DO IT AGAIN
WANNA DO IT AGAIN
*HEY EY IEEY*
(WANNA DO IT)
Oh, felt so good
Hey Mom
Since we’re talking
What was it like when you were young
Has the world changed
Or is it still the same
A man can kill and still be the sweetest love.
Since we’re talking
What was it like when you were young
Has the world changed
Or is it still the same
A man can kill and still be the sweetest love.
So I walked under a bus
I got hit by a train
Keep falling in love
Which is kinda the same
I’ve sunk out at sea
Crashed my car, gone insane
And it felt so good
I want to do it again
I got hit by a train
Keep falling in love
Which is kinda the same
I’ve sunk out at sea
Crashed my car, gone insane
And it felt so good
I want to do it again
So I walked under a bus
I got hit by a train
Keep falling in love
Which is kinda the same
I’ve sunk out at sea
Crashed my car, gone insane
And it felt so good
I want to do it again
I got hit by a train
Keep falling in love
Which is kinda the same
I’ve sunk out at sea
Crashed my car, gone insane
And it felt so good
I want to do it again
(AND I WALKED)UNDER A BUS
I GOT HIT BY A TRAIN
AND IT FEELT SO GOOD
AND I WANNA DO IT AGAIN
WANNA DO IT AGAIN
I GOT HIT BY A TRAIN
AND IT FEELT SO GOOD
AND I WANNA DO IT AGAIN
WANNA DO IT AGAIN
A Man Disposed to Doubt the Conventional Wisdom
Aug 9th, 2011 by Jason Bresnehan
Check out this great Bloomberg video about Michael Burry, a former neurologist turned self taught hedge fund manager who picked the pending burst of the US housing bubble, found a way to bet on it and made a billion dollars.A Debate is Great
Jul 28th, 2011 by Jason Bresnehan
Recently I have been engaged in a Facebook debate with an intelligent person. The debate is about man-made climate change. My opponent is a “believer” and I am a “denier” but what we apparently have in common is that we enjoy a debate.This afternoon I have sat back and considered not the topic of the debate rather the process of the debate and reached the conclusion that a debate is a process that has powerful benefits for learning, innovation and luck.
- A debate forces you to pick a side, to be polarizing. Having a position and ruffling feathers pulls you away from the silent and average middle, who sit quietly hoping to avoid confrontation.
- A good debate is competitive and the competition forces you to think, research and articulate quickly. In an attempt to win a debate you need to develop a personality that suits and accents the point you are a making. For example a mild and meek personality is probably the wrong personality for a trade union activists. A “too cool for school, black skivy and jeans wearing personality is the right personality for the CEO of Apple Inc.
- A debate helps you develop conviction and if you are loosing your conviction and resolve must become stronger. I don’t think that there would be too many billionaires or too many nobel prize winners, or too many world sporting stars without super-sized conviction and resolve.
- In a public debate your ideas are aired or published, providing an opportunity for others to interact with it. For example it might draw out criticism, rebuttal, encouragement or be the catalyst for others to share new ideas.
- When debating you are tempted at times to play the man and not the topic. Playing the man is a negative serendipity force because it can offend and cause people to shut-down the interaction when one of the most important factors in the pursuit of luck is positive people collisions.
